pbl-rpiner: Reflection on Poll Predictions

10/29/08

Reflection on Poll Predictions

To summarize this activity, I think that Obama will be sucessful in the state of Tennessee. When I first looked at the polls I was sure that McCain was going to win, but after looking at the linear regression equation I have had a slight change of heart. The equation shows that Obama has a slight slope, but that equation is only 61% correct. I figured that since Obama's was only 61% correct that John McCain was definatley going to win now. I had my turning point when I looked at McCains equation. Even thought John McCain had a steeper slope, his was only 6% correct. That is why on November 4 when they announce who won Tennessee they will be saying Barack Obama.

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Interview with Ray Piner

Interviewer: Rachael Piner
Interviewed: Ray Piner

1. Who do you plan on voting for this Election? What are the reasons behind your decision?
McCain; He's prolife, no tax increase, gives aid to affording insurance, he wants to stay in Iraq until the job is complete, I could probably keep going.

2. What are your opinions on the chosen Vice Presidential candidates?
Sarah Palin:
She is very concerned about women in politics. I think she is tired of the "Good Ole Boy" politics, which is now prominent.
Joe Biden:
He doesn't see the reason to finish the Iraq War and he changes his opinion too often.

3.When one candidate is elected what issue do you believe would be best to address first?
Economy, because people have got to be able to afford houses and the weathy people have to have a better tax rate to keep jobs in the USA.

4. Partiality aside, which candidates economic plan will resolve the current market crisis, and why?
John McCain's because he will bring all of the greedy bankers, CEO's, and wall street brokers accountable for their reckless spending and their attempt to get themselves richer.

5. Do you think that the attacks on both sides are helping the candidates, or hurting them?
I dont think that it is helping because they both need to talk about their policies and their plans on how to improve the USA.

Reflection on Interview

The person that I interviewed was my dad Ray Piner. Overall I thougth that his answers were very informative. Even though it was only a five question interview, I thought that the responses that I got gave a idea to me about the thoughts and concerns of the average American. My dad mentioned many topics, but the two most discussed were money and economics. He discussed how he felt that once elected the future President should focus on repairing the economy. This told me that the first thing on the American peoples mind is the failing Economy, and that might be the issue that decides the future leader of America. To answer the essential question, "how change by the individual is reflected on society?", I would say that every single vote counts and if a few people were to change there ballots to the opposite party it could affect society so much as changing the unexpected candidate to the newly elected President.

The Presidential Candadites views on 10 issues

ABORTION

Republican:
When it comes to Roe vs. Wade, both John McCain and Sarah Palin believes that it should be overturned. In 2003 John McCain voted for the Prohibit Partial Birth Abortion Bill, and now supports that the Supreme Court ruling upholding it. John McCain also voted yes for Prohibiting Funds for Groups that Preform Amendment from 2007. Sarah Palin has some similar views on abortion except she opens her up more to the public. Sarah Palin doesnt believe in abortion at all unless the mother is at risk. That means that her belief applies in all situations, even rape or incest.
Democratic:
Barack Obama and Joe Biden have similar beliefs but are totally opposite from John McCains and Sarah Palins. Both Democratic candidates support Roe vs. Wade, which protects the womans right of choice. Barack Obama disagrees with the Supreme Courts decision to uphold the Partial Birth Abortion Act. On the subject of funding groups for abortion, Biden opposes them, while Obama did not even cast a vote.

EDUCATION

Republican:
The Republican Presidential candidate has claimed that we, as a country, need to have more charter schools provided for students, as well as home school programs. John McCain says that as President he will keep good teachers and find bad teachers different jobs. Sarah Palin has said that we need to "increase our standards" of education, and also provide "flexibility in No Child Left Behind".
Democratic:
Barack Obama claims that as President he will decrease the high school drop out rate and enpower parents to take a stronger part in their childs education at school and home. Obama promises easy access to high quality early childhood school programs, also he ensures that as President that he will only hire well qualified and accomplished teachers.

DEATH PENALTY

Republican:
The Presidential hopeful supports the death penalty when dealing with federal crimes. McCain also supports the death penalty for "acts of fatal terrorism abroad" and has claimed that he would consider expanding capital punishment further for other crimes. When the Supreme Court outlawed the death penalty for child rapist John McCain strongly disagreed.
Democratic:
Barack Obama and John McCain agree with opposition towards the Supreme Court outlawing the death penalty for child rapist. Obama has written in the past that he believes that the death penatly doesnt do much to prevent crime, but supports capital punishment in the cases where "the community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage".

ENVIROMENT

Republican:
In 2007 John McCain and Senator Joseph Lieberman introduced the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act. This Act was designed to majorly decrease the national amount of greenhouse gases. Later John McCain would propose the use of many alternative energy sources, including nuclear energy. The Vice Presidential candidate seems to be a bit shaky on her belief of global warming. On one occassion she said that she believed that it was man made, and then on another occassion she said that she would not be one to attribute it to being man-made.
Democratic:
Barack Obama has said that if elected President he would: enforce an "economy-wide cap-and-trade" program that will decrease greenhouse gases down to the recommended level from scientist. He would also develop a program called "National Low Carbon Fuel Standard" which will speed the introduction of "low-carbon non-petroleum fuels". He would offer rewards to forest owners, farmers, and ranchers that will plant trees, restore grasslands, or participate in farming practices that keep carbon dioxide from getting into the atmosphere. Also he would give rewards to people who would maintain forest nationally.

HEALTH CARE

Republican:
McCain has said before that he disagrees with "federally mandated universal coverage", and that "competition will improve the quality of health insurance". A quote posted on his website says this "Families should be able to purchase health insurance nationwide, across statelines, and their policies should follow them from job to job". McCain promises that he will reform the tax code in order to provide options beyond the one choice of employee based health insurance coverage, and that every family will recieve direct refundable tax credits worth two thousand five hundred dollars for individuals and twice that much for families. Also on his website it is posted that he will "pass medical liability reform that eliminates lawsuits directed at doctors who follow clinical guidlines and adhere to safety protocolls"
Democratic:
The left sides beliefs for health care are just the opposite of the right side. Barack Obama claims that he will create a national health insurace program for individual Americans who are not provided with employer health care and also do not qualify for other already existing federal systems. This coverage is not for all Americans of course, but it is avaliable to all children though. This plan also allows Americans who are under the age of twenty five to be covered by their parents already existing plans. This plan will allow American citizens to buy medicines from other countries only as long as you can not get them cheaper in the United States, and they are safe for you to take. Developing this system means that Obama is planning, if elected, to repeal the ban that says that you cant purchase from, or negociate with other countries for their drugs.

IMMIGRATION

Both Parties:
Both John McCain and Barack Obama backed Bush's immigration reform legislation. This legislation increased funding and improved border security devices, and also improved the enforcement of the existing laws. Which supplied a legal path to becomeing a Unite States Citizen for many illegal immigrants. They both also voted to allow the construction of the seven hundred mile long fence which seperates, even more, the United States-Mexican border.

WAR IN IRAQ

Republican:
The Republican Presidential candidate has always been outspoken about his beliefs about the War in Iraq. John McCain has supported Bush's veto of war spending bill and also voted for the use of the military in 2002. Unlike Obama, John McCain believes that a timetable would do more harm than good. He has mentioned that Barack Obama's wanting to use a time table will include and "artificial date". Instead of such a strict time schedule John McCain has planned a little further in the future, he has said that "By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the service men and women.....The Iraq war has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffereing from the lingering effects of decadesof tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension. Violence still occurs, but it is spasmoodic and much reduced"
Democratic:
Barack Obama has ben opposed to the use of the militaries forces in Iraq since the very beginning. He has said in a past quote "I am not opposed to all wars; I am opposed to dumb wars". His plan for the withdraw of the troops is to redeploy the soldiers at a pace of one to two brigades a month. From using this schedule, Obama says, would remove all of the soldiers by the summer of 2010. When speaking about keeping the a few permanent soldiers, the senator has been quite shaky in his responses. He calims that their would be soldiers that remained in Iraq to preform specific missions there, but has said that he would make it clear to them that the United States seeks no permanent bases in Iraq.

ECONOMY

Republican:
Like Barack Obama, John McCain also supported the seven hundred billion dollar bailout plan. He has said "This rescue bill isn't perfect, and it is an outrage that it's even necessary, but wehave to stop the damage to stop the damage to our economy done by corrupt and incompetent practices on Wall Street and in Washington. The action Congress took [on October 3] is a tourniquet. It is not a permanent solution". McCain's website says that the total cost of his mortgage plan would be about three hundred billion, added onto the seven hundred billion bail out plan
Democratic:
One of the main points this election is the economy and the bailout plan. Barack Obama supported the seven hundred billion Wall Street bailout package. Obama said "America is facing on of the greatest financial crises in history, and today's passage of an emergency rescue plan was absolutely necessar to prevent an economic catastrophe that could have cost millions of jobs and forced businesses across the county into bankruptcy." His "Economic Rescue Plan" would create a twenty-five billion "Jobs and Growth Fund". Where on earth would he get that money? Who knows.

POVERTY

Republican:
If elected, John McCain has promised that he would make the "eradication of poverty" a top priority. In 1996 McCain voted for a welfare reform bill that required that the recipients of welfare had to work more and also place limits on the amount of time that they would recieve the benefits. McCain has, in the past, usually voted against raising the minimum wage because he said that it would hurt small businesses, but in two thousand-seven voted for increasing the federal minimum wage.
Democratic:
While in the Illinois senator Obama helped write the "state earned income tax credit". This gave tax-cuts to low income families. Barack Obama has claimed that if he is elected President he would aim to develop 20 "Promise Neighborhoods". This is where they would go into a neighborhood with high crime and low income and provide "a full network of services" that continued "from birth to college". He has also supported past bill that have raised the minimum wage, and while in the U.S. Senate has co-sponsored the "Global Poverty Act". The "Global Poverty Act" tells the President that he needs to come up with a plan that will cut the global poverty level in half by 2015.

STEM CELL RESEARCH

Both Parties: Both John McCain and Barack Obama have voted in favor of these three stem-cell bills:
1) The Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act
2) The Alternative Pluripontent Stem Cell Therapies Enhancement Act
3) The Fetal Farming Bill of 2006
Both candidates also voted against human cloning and the creation of human embryos.